The answer is a range, and both ends are honest. Assume the worst on every input — top of the factory price band, plus the US tariff, plus per-unit freight, against the lowest Western retail price — and the median multiple across our 31 curated picks is 1.9×, with 17 of 31 under 2×. Assume the best on every input and the median is 7.9×. Same products, same dataset. Which end you land on is set by your buy price and your selling price — not by the category you picked.
Computed from the published pick dataset on 2026-09-01. Every row is checkable against its own pick card.
Goods, duty and freight only — it excludes ad spend, returns, platform fees, storage and the samples and inspections you pay for before any of this. Those are what turn a 1.9× gross into a loss. Customs specifics are on the landed-cost page.
| Reading | How it is computed | Median | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Top of factory band × (1 + tariff) + freight, against the lowest retail price | 1.9× | 1.1× – 4.2× |
| Optimistic | Bottom of factory band × (1 + tariff) + freight, against the highest retail price | 7.9× | 2.6× – 28.4× |
| First-order cash | MOQ × top of factory band (goods only, before duty, freight, samples, inspection) | $3,300 | $690 – $7,200 |
The gap between the two rows is the entire argument. A single headline multiple quoted without saying which end of both price bands it used cannot be checked, and that is the form almost every “source from China and make 10×” claim takes.
| Pick | Conservative | Optimistic | Landed (worst) | Retail band | MOQ | First order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-in-1 Vegetable Chopper Kitchen | 4.2× | 11.7× | $5.92 | $25–35 | 1000 | $4,000 |
| Heatless Curling Set Hair Tools | 4.0× | 18.5× | $3.01 | $12–25 | 500 | $1,000 |
| Flip-Straw Dual-Lid Water Bottle Drinkware | 3.1× | 9.2× | $6.99 | $22–40 | 500 | $2,250 |
| Robot-Vacuum Compatible Consumables Kit Home Cleaning | 3.0× | 28.4× | $4.96 | $15–35 | 500 | $1,750 |
| Mini Massage Gun (Type-C) Recovery & Wellness | 3.0× | 13.7× | $9.98 | $30–100 | 100 | $690 |
| Pick | Conservative | Optimistic | Landed (worst) | Retail band | MOQ | First order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart Aroma Diffuser + Car Vent Clip Home Fragrance | 1.1× | 27.5× | $23.31 | $25–129 | 300 | $5,100 |
| Compressor Car Fridge (Dual-Zone) Auto & Overlanding | 1.1× | 4.2× | $178.25 | $199–399 | 50 | $6,250 |
| Modern Mamian (Horse-Face) Skirt New Chinese Style | 1.1× | 6.7× | $17.40 | $20–60 | 100 | $1,200 |
| Foldable Walking Pad Home Fitness | 1.2× | 2.6× | $162.63 | $199–299 | 50 | $5,550 |
| Lightweight Four-Wheel Rollator Silver Economy | 1.3× | 4.3× | $71.17 | $89–169 | 100 | $4,900 |
Note the pattern in the bottom table: the thin conservative multiples cluster on the expensive units. A $7,200 first order that has to clear a 1.1× worst case is a different risk from a $690 order at 3× — which is why first-order cash is in the table above and not a footnote.
On this site's own 31 curated picks, the honest answer is a range, not a number. Taking the worst case on every input — the top of the factory price band, plus the US tariff, plus per-unit freight, compared against the LOWEST Western retail price — the median multiple is 1.9× and 17 of 31 picks come in under 2×. Taking the best case on every input — the bottom of the factory band against the highest retail price — the median is 7.9×. Both are computed from the same published dataset; which end you land on is decided by your buy price and your selling price, not by the category.
It exists only at the optimistic end of the range. Across these 31 picks the optimistic multiple runs from 2.6× to 28.4×, so a 10× outcome is real for some products under best-case buying and pricing — but the same products land at 1.1× to 4.2× under worst-case assumptions, and the conservative median across the whole set is 1.9×. Any single headline multiple quoted without stating which end of both price bands it uses is not checkable.
MOQ multiplied by the top of the factory price band gives a median first-order goods cost of $3,300 across these picks, ranging from $690 to $7,200 before freight, duty, inspection and samples. That is goods only; the landed-cost page covers what customs adds on top.
Not in this dataset. Grouping the picks by the compliance difficulty already recorded for each one, the conservative median multiple is low: 2.3×, medium: 1.7×, high: 2.3×. In other words, taking on the harder certification burden does not, by itself, show up as a wider spread here — the compliance work buys defensibility against competitors, not a better buy price.
They are computed from this site's own curated pick dataset — the same 1688 and Alibaba factory price bands, Western retail bands, MOQs, US tariff rates and per-unit freight figures published on each pick card, recomputed by a script whenever the dataset changes. They are the curator's researched figures, not audited invoices, and Western retail is an observed price band rather than a guaranteed selling price. Check any individual row against its pick card, and confirm live duty rates with a customs broker before wiring money.